Managing Commodity Lifecycles, Petroleum


1. The fiscal management of natural resource revenues in a developing country setting produced by the World Bank in April 2012 

This article proposes ways to design a fiscal rule for developing countries. The concluding section provides general lessons for policy practitioners and advisors. It outlines certain good-practice principles underlying rules-based fiscal approaches to managing natural resource revenues. Based on these principles, this note proposes an approach to determining a nonoil deficit rule, using Kazakhstan as a case study, and simulates the impacts within a median-term fiscal framework.

2. Government response to oil price volatility : experience of 49 developing countries compiled by the World Bank 

The report updates a companion 2006 publication on coping with higher oil prices and builds upon two other publications: one on oil price volatility and another on the degree of pass-through of world oil price increases between January 2004 and August 2009. This report examines issues related to oil price levels and volatility in the downstream petroleum sector and other sectors where oil is an important input, such as transport, fisheries, and agriculture, from the point of view of consumers.

3. Coping with oil price volatility published by the World Bank in 2008

This report focuses on fluctuations around trends in oil prices. It examines measurements of oil price volatility and evaluates several different approaches to coping with oil price volatility: hedging, security stocks, price-smoothing schemes, and reducing dependence on oil including diversification. The study examines oil price volatility largely from the point of view of consumers and does not cover the management of revenue volatility by large oil exporters.
4. Vulnerability to oil price increases : a decomposition analysis of 161 countries published by the World Bank in August 2008

This paper examines the levels of and changes in vulnerability to oil price increases between 1996 and 2006 in 161 countries for which data are available. This paper highlights the role of changes in the oil share of energy and of energy intensity, both of which can be influenced by government policies, and also by oil production, which, even though it is largely a function of geology, can also be affected by a country's upstream fiscal, contractual, and regulatory frameworks.

5. Whither oil prices? published by the World Bank in July 2016
This report seeks to understand the factors behind the new normal to discern the evolution of world oil prices in the future, and their implications for the economies of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Report starts by trying to explain the oil price crash of 2014, noting that it was preceded by a significant increase in the size and frequency of volatility of oil prices. This paper suggest that the current situation may persist because of the changing behavior of market players, and the fact that overall oil demand is weak and not expected to rebound anytime soon.